The pre-issue market price discovery mechanism of the Newton Protocol has been initiated through multiple paths. Data from the over-the-counter (OTC) trading platform shows that in September, there were a total of four block trades traded: The average transaction price of each transaction exceeding 200,000 pieces was $1.15, representing a 69% premium Over the subscription price of $0.68 by early investors three months ago, but at a discount of 10.2% compared to the Bitget futures price. The liquidity distribution is extremely uneven: In the Clearpool OTC book, the buy price is $1.08 / sell price is $1.32, with a spread of 22.2%, which is much higher than the 5% health threshold of the traditional IPO market (Goldman Sachs 2023 New Share Research Report).
The futures market forms a core price anchor point. The current quote for the Bitget quarterly contract (NPT/USDT) is $1.28, with an outstanding contract volume of $4.3 million. However, the order book depth is weak – the selling pressure wall above $1.30 is only $1.5 million, resulting in a slippage rate of 3.7% for the $50,000 market order. In contrast to the 24% premium of futures before the mainnet launch of Aptos in 2023, the Newton Protocol futures are discounted by 12.3% compared to the theoretical valuation, reflecting market concerns over technology delivery: the measured data from the testnet exposed the throughput bottleneck (peak TPS was only 850 times), which is 96.6% lower than the 25,000 times promised in the white paper.
On-chain data verifies the circulation of pre-issued tokens. Among the pre-circulated tokens distributed by the testnet, 15 million (accounting for 37% of the total test distribution) have entered the Ethereum chain through cross-chain Bridges, but there are significant deviations in the balances across multiple chains: The Polygon chain recorded a locked quantity of 5.2 million, while the BSC chain showed 4.95 million (with a difference of 4.8%). This kind of anchoring failure also occurred before the Terra collapse in 2022 (with a deviation of 3.1%). The decentralized auction platform Balancer LBP conducted a Dutch-style auction. The starting price of $1.65 declined to $1.18 within 48 hours. The slope of the price curve was -28.5%, indicating insufficient capital participation (only raising $1.1 million, not reaching the minimum fundraising threshold).
Technical indicators were quantified and incorporated into the newton protocol premarket price model. The three key data collected by Chainlink nodes are fed into the pricing mechanism through an oracle: GitHub development activity (with an average of 69 submissions per week, which is 200 times lower than the healthy value). Testnet staking participation rate (33.7%, proportion of qualified verification nodes) The progress of the security audit (the average time taken to fix high-risk vulnerabilities is 3.8 days). The technical risk coefficient generated by weighting these data reached 0.68 (a threshold <0.3 is considered safe), directly leading to a 19% reduction in the pre-issue valuation model.
Compliance costs further distort the pre-issue pricing. CoinList’s compliant subscription channel charges a 27% service fee (the average traditional IPO underwriting fee is 7%), raising the institutional subscription cost to $0.85. The SEC’s “Rules on Pre-issuance of Security Assets” (effective in August 2024) in the United States requires pre-issuance token holders to complete Form S-1 filing (with a compliance cost of more than $100,000), resulting in a 41% month-on-month decline in over-the-counter trading volume. The final price formation is recommended to be cross-verified in three layers: the Balancer auction clearing curve (with an error of ±5.3%), the cross-chain bridge net traffic (with an abnormal threshold exceeding 1.5 million US dollars in a single day), and the CertiK vulnerability repair speed (with a high-risk vulnerability repair rate of less than 34% within 72 hours). The current data model indicates that the reasonable range for the pre-issue price is $1.05- $1.21, but the regulatory upgrade may cause the downward boundary to slide towards $0.79 (refer to the 38% valuation collapse caused by the regulatory shock before the 2023 Sui mainnet launch).